Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
