Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
